Q & A ON IRAQ WITHDRAWAL -- FROM DECEMBER 2005
Would the withdrawal of U.S. troops ignite a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites? No. That civil war is already under way—in large part because of the American presence. The longer the United States stays, the more it fuels Sunni hostility toward Shiite "collaborators"...
But if American troops aren't in Baghdad, what's to stop the Sunnis from launching an assault and seizing control of the city?Sunni forces could not mount such an assault. The preponderance of power now lies with the majority Shiites and the Kurds, and the Sunnis know this...
Wouldn't a U.S. withdrawal embolden the insurgency?No. If the occupation were to end, so, too, would the insurgency. After all, what the resistance movement has been resisting is the occupation...
But what about the foreign jihadi element of the resistance? Wouldn't it be empowered by a U.S. withdrawal?The foreign jihadi element—commanded by the likes of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi—is numerically insignificant; the bulk of the resistance has no connection to al-Qaeda or its offshoots...
What about the Kurds? Won't they secede if the United States leaves?Yes, but that's going to happen anyway. All Iraqi Kurds want an independent Kurdistan. They do not feel Iraqi...
Would Iran effectively take over Iraq?No. Iraqis are fiercely nationalist—even the country's Shiites resent Iranian meddling...
What about the goal of creating a secular democracy in Iraq that respects the rights of women and non-Muslims?Give it up. It's not going to happen. Apart from the Kurds, who revel in their secularism, Iraqis overwhelmingly seek a Muslim state...
What can the United States do to repair Iraq?There is no panacea. Iraq is a destroyed and fissiparous country... it might be impossible to keep Iraq from disintegrating... the best hope of avoiding this scenario is if the United States leaves...
--Nir Rosen, Atlantic Monthly, December 2005
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200512/iraq-withdrawal